Key Takeaways:

• $2.4 billion in options expired with limited market impact.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum held key psychological levels.
• Over 70% of total options volume came from block trades.

Roughly $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired on 9 January 2026 in what derivatives traders described as a relatively light settlement week.

While the expiry accounted for just 7% of total open interest, the data offers valuable insight into current market positioning as both assets consolidate near key psychological levels.

With volatility compressed and block trading activity elevated, attention is shifting increasingly toward the next macroeconomic and policy-driven catalyst that could determine the direction.

Options expiry signals stability near key price levels

According to market data, around 21,000 Bitcoin options expired with a put-call ratio of 1.07, a maximum pain point at $90,000, and a notional value of $1.9 billion.

Ethereum saw 126,000 options expire with a put-call ratio of 0.88, max pain at $3,100, and $390 million in notional value. These figures suggest that both markets settled close to levels that inflict the most significant loss on option holders, reinforcing near-term price stability.

The expiry followed a modest pullback from the post-annual settlement rebound earlier this month. After sharp declines in the fourth quarter of last year weighed heavily on sentiment, selling pressure has eased.

Bitcoin continues to find support around $90,000, while Ethereum has defended the $3,000 level, both of which are seen as critical psychological thresholds for traders.

Volatility trends and block trading activity

Implied volatility metrics reflect a market in consolidation rather than distress. Bitcoin’s main-term implied volatility remains stable around 40%, essentially unchanged from pre-Christmas levels.

Ethereum’s implied volatility has declined, with main-term IV now near 55%, signaling reduced demand for short-term downside protection.

At the same time, options flow reveals strong engagement from professional traders. Block trades accounted for more than 70% of total options volume, the highest share in recent months. This activity is being driven primarily by new position building rather than the unwinding of existing trades.

Market makers and active funds are sitting on substantial cash reserves and are selectively positioning for BTC month-end call options. ETH month-end put options, indicating divergent expectations across the two assets.

Macro catalysts in focus: Courts, policy, and precedent

With the January expiry now behind the market, focus is shifting to external catalysts.

Traders are drawing comparisons to the 10 October 2025 outcome, when a period of low volatility and range-bound trading ultimately resolved into a sharp directional move once uncertainty cleared.

In the near term, attention is centered on an upcoming US court decision regarding US  President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The ruling could influence broader risk sentiment, inflation expectations, and currency markets, all of which have knock-on effects for crypto assets.

For now, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain technically supported and lightly positioned, suggesting the market is waiting, rather than retreating, as it prepares for the next decisive signal.