Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin may move sideways as capital inflows into crypto slowly, says CryptoQuant CEO.
• Institutional holding is limiting the risk of a deep price crash.
• 2026 outlooks remain split, ranging from $65,000 to new highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) may experience months of flat price movement despite avoiding a major crash, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who noted that capital that previously flowed into the cryptocurrency has shifted to traditional markets.

“Capital inflows into BTC have dried,” Ju stated in an X post on 7 January 2026. He explained that investor money has rotated to “stocks and shiny rocks” as gold and silver prices have surged. Bitcoin was trading around $90,280 at the time, down from a weekly high of $94,800.

The CryptoQuant founder noted that diverse liquidity channels (different ways money enters the market) have made it difficult to predict when capital will flow back into Bitcoin. He added that the traditional pattern of large holders selling to retail investors has ended because institutional buyers like Strategy are holding Bitcoin for the long term.

CryptoQuant CEO expects sideways trading ahead

Unlike previous market downturns where Bitcoin dropped more than 50% from its peak price, Ju expects “just boring sideways in the coming months.” He dismissed the likelihood of a major price crash, stating that Strategy wouldn’t sell any significant portion of its 673,000 BTC holdings.

Notably, Strategy holds $2.25 billion in USD reserves for covering future obligations, and Morgan Stanley Capital International’s (MSCI’s) 7 January 2026 decision to retain the company in major indices may further support Ju’s argument. 

This forecast stands in contrast to Bitcoin’s historical performance. January has averaged 3.81% returns since 2013, while February and March have delivered improved gains of 13.12% and 12.21% respectively.

The sideways prediction also comes as market sentiment remains cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall market sentiment, has floated between “fear” and “extreme fear” since early November 2025, posting a “fear” score of 28 on Thursday, 8 January 2026.

Institutional support provides stability

Despite the lack of fresh capital inflows, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) showed momentum in early 2026. These funds recorded nearly $440 million in net inflows across the first four trading days of the year.

The presence of institutional holders has fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Traditional credit markets are experiencing record health, with the New York Federal Reserve’s high-yield distress index dropping to 0.06, the lowest level in the metric’s history, according to The Kobeissi Letter. However, this abundant liquidity has flowed to equities and commodities rather than cryptocurrencies.

Differing price outlooks

While Ju maintains a conservative outlook for early 2026, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macroeconomic research, said in an 18 December 2025 X post that 2026 could be a “year off” for Bitcoin and prices may decline to $65,000.

That said, other industry figures remain bullish. Venture capitalist Tim Draper said on 7 January 2026 that “2026 will be big,” predicting Bitcoin would reach his $250,000 target, a forecast he first made in 2018.

Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen predicted on 17 December 2025 that Bitcoin would break its customary four-year cycle in 2026 and reach fresh all-time highs.

Bitcoin derivatives data shows total futures open interest at $62.02 billion (as of writing) across 689,000 BTC. The steady positioning suggests traders are adjusting hedges rather than building strong directional bets on price movement.