Key Takeaways:

• Jump Trading plans equity stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket by providing market liquidity.
• Both platforms are growing fast, with combined valuations nearing $20 billion.
• Institutional firms are increasingly entering prediction markets as the sector expands.

Jump Trading, a Chicago-based global trading firm, is reportedly preparing to take small ownership stakes in two leading prediction market platforms (where people buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events), Kalshi and Polymarket. In exchange, the firm will act as a market maker, a trader that continuously buys and sells contracts to keep markets active and prices stable. 

The move signals deeper institutional involvement in platforms where people trade on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections and sports. 

About Jump Trading and prediction markets

Founded more than 20 years ago, Jump Trading focuses on algorithmic (automated through a software program) and high-speed trading across stocks, futures, and digital assets. It has also invested in crypto infrastructure projects, including the Wormhole cross-chain bridge (software for transferring/converting crypto assets between blockchains) and Solana’s Firedancer validator client (software that processes blockchain transactions). 

After the 2022 collapse of Terra, a stablecoin ecosystem it backed, the firm reduced some crypto exposure but continued providing liquidity to exchanges and trading venues. It’s worth mentioning that Terra’s collapse was a major 2022 crypto failure involving a stablecoin. Providing liquidity means supplying capital and trading activity to help these platforms function smoothly.

Prediction markets operate similarly to betting platforms but are structured as financial contracts. Users buy shares tied to possible outcomes of events, for example, who will win an election. The prices reflect the crowd’s estimated probability. If a contract trades at 60 cents, it implies a 60% perceived chance of that event happening. 

Polymarket notably signaled the 2024 US presidential election outcome ahead of many traditional polls, illustrating how these markets aggregate real-time expectations. 

Details of the reported agreements

Under the Kalshi agreement, Jump will receive a fixed equity stake in return for supplying liquidity. Kalshi operates as a regulated US exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that supervises derivatives markets, and allows users to trade event contracts using US dollars. The company raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation in December 2025.  

For Polymarket, Jump’s ownership will increase gradually depending on how much trading capacity it provides. Polymarket runs on Polygon, a layer-2 blockchain that makes Ethereum transactions faster and cheaper, and settles trades using cryptocurrency. The platform secured $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, valuing it at $8 billion. 

Jump is expected to actively make markets on both platforms as part of this equity-for-liquidity structure. Despite approvals at the deferral level, both Kalshi and Polymarket have been facing regulatory scrutiny and enforcement actions in multiple states, including Massachusetts, Nevada, and Tennessee. 

Importantly, neither Jump Trading nor the platforms have publicly confirmed exact stake sizes or agreement terms yet; the reporting stems from people familiar with the discussions.

Growth and institutional interest in prediction markets

Both companies have expanded quickly over 2025, with their combined valuations nearing $20 billion. Monthly trading volumes have climbed since September 2025 as interest in event-based contracts increased. Analysts estimate the sector could handle trillions of dollars in annual activity by 2030, with sports-related contracts potentially accounting for nearly half of that growth. 

Jump has more than 20 employees dedicated specifically to prediction-market trading, highlighting its operational commitment to the segment. The development underscores how established trading firms are increasingly integrating with regulated and blockchain-based event markets as institutional capital moves into new forms of financial forecasting and speculation.