Key Takeaways:

• Nasdaq has filed with the SEC to introduce “outcome-related options” tied to the Nasdaq 100.
• Traders could buy contracts priced between $0.01 and $1.00 based on whether a specific event happens.
• This is a significant difference from platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket, which operate under commodities regulation.

Nasdaq is taking a step toward bringing prediction-market-style trading to the mainstream of finance.

The exchange operator has filed a proposed rule change with the  US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to introduce what it calls “outcome-related options” tied to the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq 100 Mini indexes. If approved, the new contracts would allow traders to make simple yes-or-no bets on whether specific events happen. In this context, contracts refer to financial agreements that can be bought and sold on an exchange.

Nasdaq 100 is a stock market index that tracks 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, including major tech firms like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon. Nasdaq 100 Mini is instead a smaller-sized version of products tied to the Nasdaq 100, designed to let traders take positions with less capital and smaller contract sizes.

Unlike prediction platforms such as Kalshi, which operate under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Nasdaq’s proposed product would fall under SEC oversight instead. That means it would be regulated as a securities-based product rather than a commodities event contract. The proposal is now awaiting regulatory review, and there is no confirmed launch date.

What exactly is Nasdaq proposing?

Nasdaq wants to create exchange-traded contracts that work a lot like prediction markets.

These “outcome-related options” would be priced between 1 cent and $1. Traders would essentially buy contracts that pay out if a particular event occurs, or expire worthless if it doesn’t.

Think of it like this:

• If you believe an event will happen, you buy a contract.
• If the event occurs, the contract pays out $1.
• If it doesn’t, you lose what you paid.

Because the contracts are priced between $0.01 and $1.00, the price reflects the market’s view of the probability. For example, if a contract trades at $0.70, that suggests traders think there is roughly a 70% chance the event will occur.

The contracts would be tied to well-known stock indexes, such as the Nasdaq 100, which tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq.

How is this different from Kalshi or Polymarket?

The most significant difference is regulation.

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket operate under CFTC rules because they are considered event contracts or derivatives under commodity regulation.

Nasdaq’s proposal, however, places these contracts under SEC oversight. That means they would be treated more like securities or options traded on a traditional stock exchange.

In simple terms:

• CFTC regulates futures and commodities markets.
• SEC regulates stock markets and securities.

This distinction matters because it determines who sets the rules, how products are approved, and how investor protections are structured.

If approved, Nasdaq’s move could signal that major exchanges see demand for prediction-style products within traditional financial markets.

What happens next?

There is no launch date yet. The proposal must first be reviewed and approved by the SEC.

Regulators will likely examine:

• How the contracts are structured
• Whether they comply with securities laws
• How investor risk is managed

Market watchers will be paying close attention to the SEC’s response timeline. If approved, other major exchanges could follow with similar filings.

For everyday crypto users, Nasdaq’s move could signal that prediction-style markets are moving further into the financial mainstream. If approved, it may increase competition, bring more regulatory clarity to event-based trading, and potentially attract traditional investors who were previously hesitant to use crypto-native platforms.

Over time, that could blur the lines between Wall Street products and blockchain-based prediction markets, possibly affecting liquidity, innovation, and user choice across both spaces.