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What’s a Realistic Price Target for Bitcoin? $100k? $500k or More?

By Evan Jones03/18/2024

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Last week Bitcoin (BTC) made a dramatic break through to $70,000, a new all-time high for the king crypto. While it’s since gone through a significant correction, we are officially in new territory for BTC.

With the jump into what is called blue sky or price discovery, it is now anyone’s guess where the price of Bitcoin could settle in both the short and long term. 

We’re going to take a look at potential short-term price targets for BTC in 2024, before speculating into 2025 and beyond. We’ll also discuss some factors which need to be considered when assessing a BTC price target.

Short-Term Price Target (2024)

Plenty of people chime in with their short-term price targets for Bitcoin, seemingly on a daily basis. Before BTC blasted through its previous all time high in mid-March, there were many analysts who seemed to think there was no way that it could do it before the halving, as it hadn’t ever before. Those analysts have been proven wrong evidently. This is all just to say to take any price prediction targets with a grain of salt, as they’re rarely correct.

However, Alistair Milne, the founder of Altana Digital Currency Fund, was very close with their prediction. They believed that Bitcoin would hit $45k by the end of 2023, with prices rising dramatically in 2024 around Bitcoin’s next halving event. They weren’t far off as Bitcoin was trading at $44k USD on January 1, 2024 and as we approach the halving, it’s now over $70k.

According to popular analyst Willy Woo, where Bitcoin is now is essentially the same as when it was at $20k before its last bull run. He also noted that this bull run could be accelerated due to the current market dynamics, meaning it could top out at the end of 2024 or early 2025. His price target for this top is $337k USD per BTC.

Another popular analyst, Dave the Wave, thinks that Bitcoin could hit $170k in May.

Realistically, Bitcoin could fall somewhere between both of the above predictions for the year, but if the spot Bitcoin ETFs keep up their buying pressure of about $1 billion that could add $5k to Bitcoin’s price per day going forward.

Source: Fred Krueger Twitter

Long-Term Price Target (2025 and Beyond)

Well, if Bitcoin could hit over $300k by the end of 2024 or early 2025, what price would it hit as we go further into the future? There are certainly some bullish predictions out there, and while in previous years many of these predictions have been written off, this time feels different with the stability that spot Bitcoin ETFs provide to the sector. 

Cathie Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, thinks that Bitcoin will hit $1 million dollars before 2030. She even stated that the estimate may be too conservative, pointing out that many big players such as Morgan Stanley, Merryl Lynch, or Bank of America are part of the current institutional run which is currently underway. 

Wood didn’t give away her new estimate for Bitcoin, but she’s not alone in thinking that Bitcoin could go parabolic sooner than later, with even conservative estimators such as Bernstein now saying that is more convinced of $150k BTC by mid-2025.

Speculating on an accurate price target for Bitcoin for 2025 and beyond is difficult, but it seems to be fair to say that it should be in the hundred of thousands, if even conservative estimates now see the asset passing $150k within the next year or so. 

Though it’s not financial advice, based upon these predictions it’s still not too late to get into Bitcoin, even if you might think it is. 

Factors That Could Push BTC to the Moon

Though the price targets discussed above are certainly speculative, we’re now going to discuss some factors that could push BTC to those price targets or even higher. 

Retail Investor Entry

The crypto bull run during the COVID pandemic saw many retail investors entering the space and speculating on a variety of digital assets. This is when Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies hit previous all-time highs, as many retail investors had free capital to invest in the markets.

In the current run that Bitcoin is on, retail has yet to really enter the space. If and when they do, it will start to push the price of BTC up.

Institutional Demand

Though there is already institutional demand from the spot Bitcoin ETF providers, there are plenty of institutions that have yet to enter the game. This includes corporations, retirement funds, and companies of all sizes. Once these sorts of players start looking to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets there will be even less to go around than there already is. 

The UK just announced that it would allow institutions to apply for Bitcoin ETNs or Exchange Traded Notes, which work similarly to spot ETFs. The London Stock Exchange said that it will accept applications for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETNs in the second quarter of this year. This is likely the next of many institutions that will enter the space.

Sovereign Demand

Even if El Salvador has made Bitcoin legal tender, they’re one of the only nation states that has decided to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. But, with so many fiat currencies struggling, it seems just a matter of time before more sovereign nations look to add Bitcoin to their state as legal tender or simply as a way to shore up the country’s wealth reserves. 

Depending on how many nations and how much Bitcoin they’re looking to buy, this could be the tipping point that sends Bitcoin to the prices that we aforementioned in the long-term price target section.

Closing Thoughts

Bitcoin is starting to become the inflationary hedge which many pundits have always hoped it would. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought an air of legitimization to the industry and have brought the beginning of institutional demand to the table, with more on the way. 

Where Bitcoin’s price will end up by 2030 is certainly something fun to speculate on, and it’s possible that we may still be underestimating the places the asset’s price could go.

Article tags

bitcoin
guide
investing
Evan Jones

Author

Evan entered the crypto scene in 2017, attracted to the many disruptive possibilities that blockchain could have on current world systems. He has a keen interest in decentralized services, payment processing, and viable NFT use cases such as event ticketing. He spends his days writing with his dog Kobe under his feet, if not on his lap.

Further reading

What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in 2023? Here’s What Experts Are Saying image
What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in 2023? Here’s What Experts Are Saying01/11/2023
How High Could Bitcoin Go? Is $100k Realistic? What About $500k? image
How High Could Bitcoin Go? Is $100k Realistic? What About $500k?07/11/2023
Is the Crypto Bear Market Over? image
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